Why this swing district in Nebraska could decide the race for president : NPR

Tamara Keith

Jason Brown spray paints a blue dot sign in his driveway in Omaha, Neb., on Oct. 9, 2024. Tamara Keith/NPR hide caption

OMAHA, Neb. — In August, blue dots started popping up on Omaha lawns like mushrooms.

The signs express support for Vice President Harris — and recognition of the unique role that this congressional district could play on Nov. 5.

Jason Brown was brainstorming ways to make a difference this election year when he found some inspiration in his garage.

“I saw an old yard sign that a neighbor kid had left in our lawn a couple of years back from doing some lawn care, and I had some spray paint,” Brown said.

He drew a blue dot on a white background and used a flower pot to clean up the edges. Jason and his wife Ruth Huebner-Brown thought about putting a slogan on the sign, but decided to let the dot speak for itself.

They put the sign in their yard and immediately it went viral. “People just kept wanting them so we just kept ordering and ordering and painting,” said Huebner-Brown. “Ten went to 100 went to 200 to 400.”

Jason Brown's hands are stained from making so many blue dot signs — a viral trend in Omaha ahead of the presidential election. Tamara Keith/NPR hide caption

After 5,000 signs, their hands were stained and local hardware stores were running out of Brilliant Blue Rust-Oleum. So they got a professional printer to make more. They are up to 12,500 signs and counting.

This very homespun effort comes as the Harris campaign is pouring real resources into winning here. Unlike most other states, Nebraska allocates its electoral votes by congressional district, rather than winner-take-all.

Of the swing states, if Harris were to only win Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania she would be one electoral vote short of the presidency. And that’s where Omaha comes in — a little blue dot with huge stakes for this election.

These blue dots are a “Nebraska nice” way for people to show they plan to vote for Harris in a time of partisan polarization and discord. And Republicans took notice.

“When the blue dots appeared I probably fielded at least 30 or 40 phone calls in a matter of probably an hour and a half,” said Theresa Thibodeau, co-chair of a group called Red State Nebraska.

A group called Red State Nebraska made their own signs to counter the blue dot signs. Tamara Keith/NPR hide caption

Thibodeau’s group started printing its own signs: a simple red map of Nebraska on a white background.

“We are not a blue dot — we are a red state — and that’s the statement that we want to make with that,” Thibodeau said.

She says some people come in asking for four or five signs to compete with all the blue dots around them.

“A lot of people who maybe aren’t particularly comfortable with having a certain candidate sign in their yard, they feel comfortable having a red state sign,” Thibodeau said.

Thibodeau and dozens of volunteers spent part of last week hanging little red plastic bags with Republican campaign literature on thousands of doors, targeting low-propensity voters in hopes of boosting GOP candidates up and down the ballot.

Theresa Thibodeau, co-chair of Red State Nebraska, hangs plastic bags with Republican campaign literature on a door in Omaha, Neb., on Oct. 10, 2024. Tamara Keith/NPR hide caption

The limited public polls that exist show Harris with a firm lead here. A campaign office in a nondescript office building hummed with action last Wednesday night as Democratic volunteers reminded people to send in their absentee ballots.

In September, Former President Donald Trump and his allies made a last-ditch failed push to get the state’s legislature to move to a winner-take-all system for its electoral votes.

During that effort, John Fredrickson, a Democratic state senator, who represents a Republican majority district in Omaha, said he heard a lot push-back from voters – Republicans and Democrats alike.

“I like to call [the district] the purple dot because the reality is, that electoral vote has gone to Republican administrations, it’s gone to Democrat administrations. It goes back and forth,” said Fredrickson. “It truly is a swing district.”

Volunteer Teresa Wheelock calls voters on behalf of Vice President Harris in a campaign office in Omaha, Neb., on Oct. 9, 2024. Tamara Keith/NPR hide caption

It’s not just homemade signs. The Harris campaign has spent $5 million on advertising so far here, while Trump has only spent about $200,000, according to data from ad-tracking firm AdImpact.

Republican VP nominee JD Vance has campaigned here and Democratic VP candidate Tim Walz is in Omaha for a repeat visit on Saturday.

At a blue dot sign pickup party in the city last week, Laurie Churchill said she likes that national politicians have to pay attention to Nebraska because of the way it allocates its Electoral College voters.

“Other than our little blue dot we would be totally ignored, so we like being able to not be ignored and we think that’s the way it should be for everybody,” Churchill said.

Churchill drove an hour from Lincoln to get her sign. “We have just caught the blue dot fever. We’re so excited with what they do. It’s so grassroots,” Churchill said.

This weekend, a group called Blue Dot Energy is organizing an event in Omaha’s Memorial Park to create a giant human blue dot and photograph it using a drone.

It’s just the latest effort to generate hype ahead of the election. Ryan Wilkins, one of the organizers, says it’s about sending a signal that people are not alone.

“It's just a dot. It doesn't feel like much. The world feels big and you feel small. But what happens when the dots become a drizzle and the drizzle becomes a storm and the storm becomes a wave and the wave, the tsunami,” Wilkins said, waxing philosophical.

He even put that sentiment into a rap.

“In a lot of states, there's just not really any question as to which way it's going to go, blue or red,” said Wilkins, noting the unique opportunity in his district to see its electoral vote go for Harris.

“And there's even a scenario in which that electoral vote could be decisive. So we wanted to do everything we could in our neck of the woods to get that outcome,” he said.

NPR's Alejandra Marquez Janse and Jason Fuller contributed to this story.